/FONT#0=BASL30/FONT#1=BASI30
␈↓␈↓↓␈↓␈↓ ↓HA PROPOSAL FOR A STATEMENT OF THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR OPTIMISM  THAT
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓5TECHNOLOGICALLY  BASED  HIGH  STANDARD OF LIVING CAN CONTINUE FOR THE
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ¬4INDEFINITE FUTURE
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Many␈αpeople␈αhave␈αcome␈αto␈αbelieve␈αthat␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates␈αdoes␈αnot␈αhave␈αthe␈αresources␈αwithin
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hits␈α∂own␈α∂borders␈α∂to␈α∂continue␈α∂its␈α∂present␈α∂standard␈α∂of␈α∂living␈α∂for␈α∂very␈α∂long.␈α∂Naturally,␈α∞they␈α∞are␈α∞also
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hconvinced␈α∂that␈α∂the␈α∂rest␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂world␈α∂cannot␈α∂hope␈α∂to␈α∂match␈α∞the␈α∞present␈α∞American␈α∞standard.␈α∞This
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbelief␈α↔is␈α↔unpleasant,␈α⊗and␈α⊗moreover,␈α⊗it␈α⊗suggests␈α⊗policies␈α⊗quite␈α⊗different␈α⊗from␈α⊗those␈α⊗that␈α⊗are
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Happropriate␈α
if␈α
the␈α
American␈α
standard␈α
of␈α
living␈α
can␈α
be␈α
continued␈α
and␈αimproved,␈αand␈αif␈αthe␈αrest␈αof
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthe␈α
world␈α
can,␈α
if␈α
they␈α
act␈α
appropriately,␈α
reach␈α
the␈α
American␈α
standard.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α⊃majority␈α⊃of␈α⊂scientists␈α⊂who␈α⊂have␈α⊂looked␈α⊂into␈α⊂the␈α⊂matter␈α⊂believe␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂technological
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hoptimism␈α
that␈α
characterized␈α
the␈α
post␈αwar␈αworld␈αuntil␈αthe␈αlate␈α1960s␈αis␈αstill␈αjustified.␈αWhile␈αchanges
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hin␈αtechnology␈αwill␈αhave␈αto␈αbe␈αmade␈αfrom␈αtime␈αto␈αtime,␈αa␈αtechnological␈αcivilization␈αsupporting␈αa␈αhigh
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hrate␈α∂of␈α∂consumption␈α∂can␈α∂be␈α∂continued␈α∂together␈α∞with␈α∞an␈α∞improvement␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α∞environment␈α∞for␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hindefinite␈α
future,␈α
e.g.␈α
until␈α
the␈α
sun␈αuses␈αup␈αits␈αhydrogen.␈αThe␈αonly␈αmajor␈αprovisos␈αare␈αthat␈αnuclear
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwar␈α
is␈α
avoided␈α
and␈α
that␈α
population␈α
is␈α
limited␈α
in␈α
the␈α
near␈α
future.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α∂view␈α∂a␈α∂person␈α∂takes␈α∂of␈α∂this␈α∞general␈α∞question␈α∞of␈α∞whether␈α∞optimism␈α∞is␈α∞justified␈α∞strongly
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Haffects␈αhis␈αattitude␈αtowards␈αman␈αimmediate␈αpolicy␈αissues␈αconcerning␈αenergy,␈αpollution,␈αlife␈αstyle,␈αand
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Heven␈α∂politics.␈α∂However,␈α∂the␈α∂long␈α∂range␈α∂issue␈α∂is␈α∞rarely␈α∞debated␈α∞directly␈α∞but␈α∞rather␈α∞as␈α∞a␈α∞sideline␈α∞to
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hissues␈αof␈αimmediate␈αpolicy.␈αIn␈αour␈αopinion,␈αit␈αwould␈αclear␈αthe␈αair␈α
for␈α
discussions␈α
of␈α
immediate␈α
policy,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hif␈α
there␈α
were␈α
a␈α
convincing␈α
argument␈α
that␈αlong␈αrange␈αoptimism␈αabout␈αthe␈αtechnological␈αoptions␈αwas
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hjustified.␈αAgain,␈αwe␈αwould␈αnot␈αhave␈α
agree␈α
on␈α
whether␈α
political␈α
optimism␈α
was␈α
justified␈α
or␈α
how␈α
society
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmight␈αadequately␈αbe␈αorganized␈αin␈αorder␈αto␈αrealize␈αthe␈αliving␈αstandards␈αmade␈αpossible␈αby␈αtechnology.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HWe␈α
would␈α
also␈α
not␈α
have␈α
to␈α
agree␈α
on␈α
how␈α
the␈α
fruits␈α
of␈α
technology␈α
are␈α
best␈α
divided.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_To␈α∞serve␈α∞the␈α∞purpose␈α∞of␈α∞allaying␈α∞anxiety␈α∞and␈α∞pointing␈α∞policy␈α∞in␈α∞constructive␈α∞directions,␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hstatement␈α
could␈α
not␈α
simply␈α
be␈α
an␈α
expression␈α
of␈α
faith␈α
in␈α
the␈αpower␈αof␈αscience␈αand␈αtechnology,␈αsince
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthis␈αfaith␈αis␈αprecisely␈αwhat␈αhas␈αbeen␈αput␈αin␈αjeopardy.␈αInstead,␈αit␈αwould␈αhave␈αto␈αaddress␈αthe␈αspecific
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hlong␈α
range␈α
problems␈α
about␈α
which␈α
doubts␈α
have␈α
been␈α
raised.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Thus␈α∩it␈α∩would␈α∩have␈α⊃to␈α⊃show␈α⊃that␈α⊃enough␈α⊃energy␈α⊃to␈α⊃bring␈α⊃the␈α⊃whole␈α⊃world␈α⊃substantially
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbeyond␈α∂the␈α∂present␈α∂American␈α∂level␈α∂of␈α∂energy␈α∂use␈α∞will␈α∞be␈α∞available␈α∞for␈α∞the␈α∞indefinite␈α∞future.␈α∞The
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hstatement␈α
would␈α
not␈α
have␈α
to␈α
determine␈α
the␈α
␈↓↓best␈↓␈αlong␈αrange␈αsource␈αof␈αenergy;␈αit␈αwould␈αonly␈αhave␈αto
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdetermine␈α⊃one␈α⊂adequate␈α⊂source.␈α⊂Still␈α⊂less␈α⊂would␈α⊂it␈α⊂have␈α⊂to␈α⊂determine␈α⊂the␈α⊂best␈α⊂immediate␈α⊂energy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpolicy.␈α∞Thus,␈α∞if␈α∞it␈α∞were␈α∞agreed,␈α∞the␈α∞statement␈α∞might␈α∞simply␈α∞assert␈α∞that␈α
there␈α
is␈α
enough␈α
extractable
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Huranium␈αand␈αthorium␈αin␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates␈αto␈αsupply␈αenergy␈αat␈αreasonable␈αcost␈αfor␈αmillions␈αof␈αyears.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HIt␈α
might␈α
also␈α
say␈α
that␈α
central␈α
station␈α
solar␈α
power␈α
plants␈α
are␈α
also␈α
feasible.␈α
It␈α
would␈αnot␈αhave␈αto␈αsay
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwhich␈αis␈αbetter␈αeven␈αin␈αthe␈αlong␈αrun.␈αThe␈α
energy␈α
technology␈α
used␈α
even␈α
one␈α
hundred␈α
years␈α
from␈α
now
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwill␈α⊃be␈α⊂determined␈α⊂by␈α⊂our␈α⊂descendants,␈α⊂and␈α⊂our␈α⊂views␈α⊂on␈α⊂the␈α⊂subject␈α⊂will␈α⊂be␈α⊂of␈α⊂only␈α⊂historical
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hinterest.␈α
The␈α
purpose␈α
of␈α
this␈α
example␈α
is␈α
not␈α
to␈α
prejudge␈α
how␈αthe␈αstatement␈αwill␈αresolve␈αthe␈αenergy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hproblem␈α
but␈α
simply␈α
to␈α
give␈α
a␈α
sample␈α
of␈α
what␈α
might␈α
be␈α
said.␈α
Naturally,␈α
even␈α
if␈αthe␈αabove␈αposition
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwere␈α
agreed␈α
upon,␈α
a␈α
detailed␈α
and␈α
quantitative␈α
statement␈α
would␈α
be␈α
required␈α
to␈α
be␈α
convincing.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Naturally,␈α⊂many␈α⊂of␈α⊂us␈α⊂are␈α⊂working␈α⊂on␈α⊂questions␈α⊂excluded␈α⊂from␈α∂the␈α∂statement␈α∂-␈α∂immediate
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hquestions␈α⊃of␈α⊃technological␈α⊃or␈α⊃social␈α⊂policy.␈α⊂Nevertheless,␈α⊂we␈α⊂believe␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂narrow␈α⊂question␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwhether␈α∞long␈α∞term␈α∞technological␈α∞optimism␈α∞is␈α∞justified␈α∞needs␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞settled␈α∞and␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞settled␈α∞more
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Heasily␈α
if␈α
treated␈α
separately.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_As␈α
we␈α
see␈α
it␈α
now,␈α
the␈α
following␈α
other␈α
problems␈α
have␈α
to␈α
be␈α
faced␈α
besides␈α
energy:
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_1.␈α
Food.␈α
We␈α
may␈α
have␈α
to␈α
go␈α
beyond␈α
agriculture␈α
and␈α
consider␈α
the␈α
synthetic␈α
possibilities.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_2.␈α∩Mineral␈α∩resources.␈α∩It␈α∩may␈α∩be␈α∩difficult␈α∩to␈α∩be␈α∩comprehensive␈α⊃here,␈α⊃because␈α⊃it␈α⊃would␈α⊃be
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hnecessary␈αto␈αdiscuss␈αsubstitutability.␈αThus␈αif␈αplatinum␈αwere␈αcheap,␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αconsidered␈αa␈α
necessity
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hfor␈α
high␈α
quality␈α
cookware.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_3.␈α∀Environmental␈α∀effects.␈α∀It␈α∀is␈α∪necessary␈α∪to␈α∪be␈α∪convincing␈α∪that␈α∪we␈α∪can␈α∪avoid␈α∪poisoning
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hourselves.␈α∞It␈α∞is␈α∞not␈α∞necessary␈α∞to␈α
agree␈α
on␈α
what␈α
degree␈α
of␈α
preservation␈α
of␈α
wilderness␈α
is␈α
desirable.␈α
It
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmay␈α∞be␈α
necessary␈α
to␈α
discuss␈α
control␈α
over␈α
natural␈α
fluctuations␈α
in␈α
climate␈α
in␈α
order␈α
to␈α
determine␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hnaturally␈αcaused␈αice␈αages␈αcan␈αbe␈αavoided␈αand␈αthat␈αclimate␈αchanging␈αside␈αeffects␈αcan␈αbe␈αcompensated
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hfor␈α
by␈α
actions␈α
that␈α
directly␈α
affect␈α
the␈α
climate.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α⊃first␈α⊃form␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃statement␈α⊃might␈α⊃merely␈α⊃be␈α⊃an␈α⊂expression␈α⊂of␈α⊂opinion.␈α⊂Even␈α⊂such␈α⊂a
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hstatement␈α
will␈α
relieve␈α
some␈α
of␈α
the␈α
gloom.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α∀second␈α∀form␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀statement␈α∀should␈α∀be␈α∀aimed␈α∀at␈α∀convincing␈α∀other␈α∪scientists␈α∪and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Htechnologists,␈α∞because␈α∞many␈α∞scientists␈α∞and␈α∞technologists␈α∞are␈α∞affected␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α
pessimistic␈α
atmosphere.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HBesides␈α⊃that,␈α⊃the␈α⊃argument␈α⊃must␈α⊃withstand␈α⊃scientific␈α⊃criticism␈α⊃before␈α⊃we␈α⊃can␈α⊂justify␈α⊂asserting␈α⊂it
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hauthoritatively␈α∞to␈α∞the␈α∞non-scientific␈α∞public.␈α
Most␈α
likely,␈α
we␈α
would␈α
have␈α
to␈α
admit␈α
some␈α
gaps␈α
in␈α
our
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hargument,␈α
especially␈α
in␈α
the␈α
areas␈αof␈αresources␈αand␈αclimate␈αcontrol,␈αbut␈αwe␈αcould␈αhope␈αto␈αestablish␈αa
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpresumption␈α↔of␈α↔optimism␈α↔and␈α↔suggest␈α⊗research␈α⊗specifically␈α⊗aimed␈α⊗at␈α⊗reinforcing␈α⊗or␈α⊗refuting
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Htentatively␈α
adequate␈α
solutions.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α⊂third␈α⊂form␈α⊂would␈α⊂be␈α∂popular␈α∂and␈α∂aimed␈α∂at␈α∂the␈α∂general␈α∂intellectual␈α∂public␈α∂and␈α∂policy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmakers.␈α⊂Naturally,␈α⊂the␈α⊂mere␈α⊂acceptance␈α⊂of␈α⊂an␈α⊂optimistic␈α⊂view␈α∂would␈α∂not␈α∂determine␈α∂policy,␈α∂but␈α∂it
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hwould␈α
affect␈α
it.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_This␈αmemorandum␈αis␈αan␈αinvitation␈α
to␈α
participate␈α
in␈α
a␈α
meeting␈α
to␈α
be␈α
held␈α
at␈α
xxx␈α
to␈α
discuss␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hform␈αsuch␈αa␈αstatement␈αof␈αoptimism␈αmight␈αtake␈αand␈αto␈αdiscuss␈αhow␈α
we␈α
might␈α
most␈α
readily␈α
obtain␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hexpress␈α
the␈α
necessary␈α
information.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ∧λJohn␈α
McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ∧λxxxx
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ∧λyyyy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ∧λetc.
␈↓ ↓H